2025 Coal Supply And Demand Analysis And 2026 Market Outlook

 In 2025, production increased by 1.2% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 9.6% year-on-year.

 According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2025, China's raw coal production was 4.83 billion tons, a 1.2% increase year-on-year. Among them, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Guizhou rank among the top in raw coal production, with 13.05 million tons, 12.86 million tons, 8.05 million tons, 5.53 million tons, and 1.53 million tons respectively. The combined raw coal production of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang amounts to 3.948 billion tons, accounting for 81.7% of the national total, and remains the core region for coal supply in China.

 In terms of imports and exports, statistics from the General Administration of Customs show that in 2025, China imported a total of 4.9 billion tons of coal, a decrease of 52.43 million tons or 9.6% compared to the previous year; and exported 6.6 million tons of coal, a decrease of 1.0% compared to the previous year. The import sources are concentrated, with Indonesia, Mongolia, Russia, Australia, and Canada accounting for a total of 47,791.38 million tons of imports, which represents 97.5% of the country's total imports. By coal type, the import ratios for anthracite, coking coal, general coal, and brown coal are 3.1%, 24.2%, 35.4%, and 37.3%, respectively. Among them, brown coal imported from Indonesia accounts for 88.9% of the total brown coal imports and 33.1% of the total coal imports nationwide.

 According to data from the China Coal Industry Association, at the end of 2025, the inventory of coal enterprises nationwide was 79 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons or 4.6% compared to the previous year, with a slight increase in corporate inventory.

 In 2026, the market supply and demand may shift from a loose state towards a balanced state.

 Looking ahead to 2026, the coal market may continue to maintain a supply and demand balance in the first half of the year. The supply of coal from the production areas may be adjusted due to reduced production during the Spring Festival, but the consumption of thermal coal by end users is slow, and procurement demand is limited. This, combined with high port inventory levels, will put downward pressure on coal prices.

 In the second half of the year, as the peak demand for coal during summer and winter approaches, the coal market will be influenced by both policy and market factors. The deepening pursuit of the "dual carbon" goals will suppress the demand for coal as a fuel, but the demand for coal-based chemical raw materials will continue to expand. Currently, the total investment in the ongoing and planned coal chemical projects in Xinjiang exceeds 700 billion yuan, and they are expected to be completed and put into operation in 2026 or 2027. At the same time, under industry macro-regulation, coal supply will remain reasonably ample. Adjustments in export policies of countries like Indonesia may lead to a decrease in our coal imports, and the market supply and demand will gradually move towards balance, with coal prices remaining stable within a reasonable range.