Energy Service Demand Will Continue To Increase

     Recently, the International Energy Agency released the "2025 World Energy Outlook" report emphasizing that in the coming decades, global demand for energy services, especially electricity, will continue to grow. This includes transportation, heating, cooling, lighting, and other household and industrial uses. At the same time, the energy supply required for data and artificial intelligence-related services will also significantly increase.

    Electricity is the lifeline of contemporary industry and digital economy. Currently, it only accounts for 20% of global terminal energy consumption but supports over 40% of the global economic output. It is also the core energy supply for most households. In the foreseeable future, the growth rate of global electricity demand will far exceed the total energy consumption. This is already evident in current global energy investments, with investments in power supply and end-use electrification accounting for 50% of the total global energy investment.

    The report predicts that global oil and gas supply will be sufficient in the short term, with oil prices stabilizing in the range of $60 to $65. As new LNG export projects come online, the supply and demand imbalance in the natural gas market is also expected to ease. However, the recent balance in the international oil and gas market still faces tests from geopolitical risks. If global energy transition policies slow down or oil and gas prices drop to stimulate demand growth, the existing buffer space might quickly narrow.

The report indicates that there will be an increase in final investment decisions for new liquefied natural gas projects globally in 2025. By 2030, it is estimated that new liquefied natural gas export facilities with an annual capacity of approximately 300 billion cubic meters will be operational, resulting in a 50% increase in global liquefied natural gas supply. Although natural gas demand is expected to increase, such a large increase in liquefied natural gas production capacity may lead to an oversupply in the market.

     Notably, the report predicts that oil and gas will continue to play an important role in future energy evolution. Under current policies, oil and gas demand will not peak until 2050, and oil will remain the main fuel. As developed economies slow down in demand for oil and gas, emerging economies such as India and Southeast Asia, along with developing countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, will contribute most of the global demand growth in the coming years and may gradually reshape the international energy market landscape.

The report points out that with the changes in the international energy market and the instability of the international political landscape, in addition to traditional energy security risks such as oil and gas supply, the vulnerability in other critical mineral resources sectors is particularly significant. In response, looking back at the history of energy development over the past few decades, there has never been a time like now where we face so much pressure on energy security from multiple fuels and technologies.

From : www.cwestc.com

Editor : Xu Xi