In 2026 The Average Coal Price Will Gradually Rise

 This year, coal consumption in our country will continue to grow with the support of the economic fundamentals, but due to factors such as a decline in imported coal, domestic anti-overcapacity measures, and coal mine capacity verification, the coal market will enter a de-stocking mode, and the growth rate of coal supply may be less than consumption. This year, the average price of coal will gradually rise, with the lowest price being pushed above the long-term contract price (675 yuan/ton).

 Looking back at last year, the coal market in our country exhibited a typical "loose at the beginning, tight at the end" pattern. In the first half of the year, due to the combined effects of high supply, weak demand, and high imports, social inventory continued to rise, with inventory at the ports around the Bohai Sea reaching new highs frequently. Market sentiment was low, and the price of thermal coal at the ports around the Bohai Sea dropped to 615 yuan/ton at one point. After mid-June, under the influence of multiple factors such as policy regulation, security checks, and high temperatures, the supply and demand relationship improved marginally, causing coal prices to bottom out and rebound, reaching the highest point of last year's coal prices at 832 yuan/ton in late autumn and early winter.

 This year, the total coal consumption will maintain a low rate of growth. Especially during the summer and winter peaks of coal usage, the demand for coal in the power sector is relatively high. The demand for coal in the steel and construction materials industries continues to decline. And high-tech industries and new energy sectors continue to experience positive growth. The production of major coal chemical products continues to grow, driving an increase in the demand for chemical coal. Overall analysis indicates that coal consumption for power generation is expected to maintain positive growth this year, which will offset the decline in coal use for steel and construction materials. There is still some room for growth in China's coal demand.