Middle East Oil Prices Surge Past $150

 Iran has threatened to push oil prices up to $200 per barrel, which may sound like an exaggeration, but as the energy crisis continues, this outcome seems more likely to occur than the prediction by US President Trump that oil prices will soon return to pre-war levels.

 The joint war between Israel and the United States against Iran has entered its third week-and has escalated into a conflict that covers the entire Middle East region-but the response of the global oil benchmark index so far has been surprisingly "calm."

 Brent crude oil is currently trading at around $100 per barrel, up about 65% from the beginning of the year. Although this price was unimaginable a few weeks ago, it is still below the brief peak of nearly $120 last Monday.

 Given that since the conflict began, about one-fifth of the global oil supply (approximately 20 million barrels per day) has been trapped due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices should have been much higher. Many oil traders seem to be betting that the president will ultimately be able to limit the damage to the market.

 "When all this is over, oil prices will drop very, very quickly," Trump said on Monday this week.

 However, this optimism seems increasingly difficult to reconcile with the reality on the ground-whether on the increasingly intense battlefields or in the physical oil market where supply bottlenecks are spreading.