As the conflict between the US and Iran continues and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, not only crude oil trade is affected, but the circulation of key fertilizer products has also come to a near standstill, causing prices to soar. The result could be another serious blow to inflation, thereby pushing up global food prices.
Joseph Brusuela, Chief Economist and Head of RSM US LLP, said: "The increase in fertilizer costs will definitely lead to higher prices in U.S. supermarkets." "
The United Nations estimates that in 2024, about one-third of the global maritime trade in fertilizer-approximately 16 million tons-will need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
If the supply of key agricultural inputs is not prioritized, the United States will face the risk of a crop shortage. This not only threatens food security but also national security, and such production shocks may further exacerbate inflation pressures in the U.S. economy. Farmers will therefore raise the prices of agricultural products, which will directly affect households and lead to price increases in supermarkets and restaurants "
Calming the situation may help stabilize prices.