The Energy Crisis Has A Limited Impact On Chinese Economy

 The ongoing tension in the Middle East is impacting global energy security, and combined with the price surge caused by the chip shortage, the global economy is facing a dual supply chain and energy shock similar to that of 2022. The risks in the supply chain continue to escalate, and the ripple effects at the economic level may further amplify, potentially slowing down global economic growth.

 Currently, the world is simultaneously experiencing two supply-side shocks. Since the end of last year, the price increase trend for memory chips has not only continued but has also been transmitted to the end market. The contraction of the supply side, combined with panic buying by downstream consumers, has led to a tight supply of consumer-grade storage chips, causing prices to skyrocket, which in turn has increased manufacturing costs in areas such as consumer electronics, AI servers, and smart cars.

 The impact did not stop at storage chips. The worsening situation in the Middle East has led to the shutdown of Qatar's helium production facilities, and helium is an indispensable cooling and temperature control material in the chip manufacturing process. Qatar supplies about one-third of the world's helium, and a disruption in its supply would have a severe impact on the global semiconductor industry chain, potentially leading to a reduction in production capacity and an increase in prices. At the same time, the global passive component industry has also announced that it will follow suit with price increases, and the electronics industry may enter a new round of price inflation. Currently, some domestic Chinese smartphone brands have begun to raise prices collectively.

 In contrast, China is less likely to be directly affected by this round of oil crisis. China's power supply mainly relies on coal and new energy sources, with oil and natural gas accounting for a relatively small proportion in the power supply structure. Although China's dependence on foreign oil and gas has been high for a long time, oil and gas production both reached new highs in 2025. More importantly, the oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz only accounts for about 6.6% of China's total energy consumption, and natural gas accounts for only 0.6%, which to some extent reduces China's reliance on Middle Eastern energy channels.