Uncertainty in The Global Crude Oil Market Is Increasing

 The volatility in the crude oil market has increased. According to Reuters, after entering 2026, the threat of a large-scale military operation by the United States against Venezuela and the threat of U.S. intervention have increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which has led to concerns about oil supply and supported crude oil prices to rise for 5 consecutive trading days from January 8 to 14.

 The crude oil market faces a significant supply surplus.  Although geopolitical tensions have driven recent oil price increases, weak fundamentals continue to cast a shadow over the medium-term prospects of the oil industry. In the context of sluggish demand growth, the global oil market is facing a significant supply surplus this year as "OPEC+" and other oil-producing countries increase production.

 Increased potential uncertainty in the oil market. The United States recently launched a large-scale military operation against Venezuela, which has drawn criticism from some European financial institutions. Many believe that this move may intensify global investors' concerns about geopolitical uncertainties and potentially impact the supply and risk expectations of the international oil market.

 The current market generally believes that international oil prices are still primarily driven by global economic growth, the policies of major oil-producing countries, and changes in inventory However, the U.S. military's large-scale military strike on Venezuela once again reminded the market that unilateral actions may increase geopolitical uncertainty and pose potential risks to the global energy market.

 The U.S. dollar index will continue to weaken in 2026, with the market maintaining a pessimistic sentiment and gold prices remaining at high levels. Under the influence of multiple factors, the uncertainty in the crude oil market will increase, and the intensifying geopolitical conflicts will also exacerbate short-term oil price volatility.