China's Energy Structure in The Next Decade

 Over the next decade, China's energy consumption structure will feature "decreasing coal, stable oil and gas, and increasing non-fossil energy," meaning that the share of coal will continue to decline, the share of oil and gas will remain generally stable, and the share of non-fossil energy will continue to rise.

 Wu Mouyuan, deputy director of the Economic and Technological Research Institute of China Petroleum Group, pointed out when releasing the report that by 2035, China's energy sector will initially form a "three-legged stool" pattern, with oil and gas demand accounting for more than 25% of total energy consumption. By 2060, it is expected that the entire energy structure will become more diversified and balanced, and non-fossil energy will replace fossil energy to become the main source of energy consumption in China.

 The report points out that oil demand is accelerating its shift towards the fields of chemicals and new material manufacturing, becoming a key raw material that supports energy transition. By 2050, chemical industry oil consumption will increase to a peak of 2.9 billion tons, a 57% increase from 2025, and will remain at this peak plateau after 2050, with its share of oil demand rising to over 50%. In terms of transportation fuel, the report predicts that demand for transportation fuel will exceed 3 billion tons by 2030, and will still exceed 1.8 billion tons by 2060, with green ammonia and alcohols accounting for about two-thirds of that demand.

As for natural gas, the report predicts that it will play a key role in replacing coal and supporting the new power system. Over the next 10 years, natural gas demand will continue to grow rapidly, with an additional demand of approximately 200 billion cubic meters. From 2035 to 2040, it will enter a peak plateau period, with a demand scale of approximately 620 to 650 billion cubic meters, and maintain a relatively high level of about 500 billion cubic meters in the long term.

 The report mentions that if technological breakthroughs increase the growth potential of domestic gas production and cross-border energy trade cooperation becomes closer, China's gas demand growth potential will be further unleashed, and natural gas demand is still expected to reach a peak of 700 billion cubic meters by 2040.